I love playing Monday morning QB. I can make myself look like a genius because I already have all the answers to the test! A friend of mine joined a recent Twitter Fantasy Football 12 team league and they finished up their draft last week. You can find the complete draft results here: http://twittermock.blogspot.com/search/label/Summary%20of%20Draft%20Picks. For the record, all the teams seem to be fairly competitive. There were no awful picks (like in one of my leagues a few years back when Jake Delhomme was selected in the first round), but there are some picks I question. I've gone through each team and picked out the picks I like, the picks I hate, and the Barack Obama picks (where you get yourself all excited about a guy, but in the back of your mind, you know he won't live up to expectations and you'll really want to trade him or release him by week 4).
My first, and most important reaction to this draft is that this is the year of the handcuff. It is absolutely imperative that you get your star RBs handcuff. No one in the draft did it, and I think someone will get burned. Of the RBs taken in the first round, all of them, other than Maurice Jones Drew and Matt Forte, have some type of red flag. AD, SJax, LT, Gore and Jacobs have all had injury issues. AD and Turner are both coming off 350+ carries. Quick, tell me the last RB to get that many carries and come back stronger the next year.... Yeah, keep looking. Once you get passed 2004, you get my point. DeAngelo and Chris Johnson both have backfield mates, and I'll get to Thomas Jones later. I'm not saying you don't draft these guys, but I'd suggest reaching for their backups earlier than normal.
Team Carwile
I like Roddy White a lot, but this seems early. He's never had double digit TDs and the team added Tony Gonzalez. While this probably helps his yardage totals, Turner is definitely their #1 choice in the redzone and Gonzo will be #2. Like him...but not with WR like Wayne and Boldin on the board. Addai is the clear Obama pick here. I mentioned him a few weeks ago so I won't bore you. I hate him. I like Chad Johnson to rebound and was planning on targeting him somewhere in the 7th round of drafts this fall. 4th Round seems early especially since even when he put up big numbers he was inconsistent. The McNabb pick is puzzling. It's 4 points for TD passes and the top tier of QBs is gone. McNabb can't be ranked anywhere higher than 8-12 and you can get his numbers much later. I LOVE Anthony Gonzalez where he got him (7th RD). He's going to get 1000 yards and every WR who plays with Peyton and has Reggie on the other side has a shot a double digit TDs. I'm shocked he fell this far. Remember when Laurence Maroney ran for 125 yards and 2 TDs against the Bengals in '06!? It was 2006! For some reason I think he has a respectable season and like the late value. How do you not like a guy who finishes a year on a high note and has a name like Johnny Lee Higgins? Great pick in the 14th round.
Team Spears
This guy clearly knows how to draft a fantasy team, but I think he could have dominated this draft after his first three picks, but had some hiccups. Santonio Holmes was supposed to break out last year but was average at best. He had a good post season and a great superbowl, but other guys have done that before (Deion Branch). He has potential, but I'm not sure he ever is more than a 950 yard, 6-8 TD WR. There's a place for that on fantasy teams and he won't get released by owners, but I'll give him the Obama pick as a guy with more hype than numbers. THE STEAL OF THIS DRAFT WAS TONY G. in the 5th. I love Matt Ryan, D's will key on Turner, White is legit on the outside, and I don't think 12-15 TDs is totally insane to predict. Bernard Berrian is a very strong #3 WR and allowed him to take a shot on Crabtree. Rookie WRs are tough, but with his core of RB/WR at the time of this pick, he can take a shot at the upside. He then embarrassed himself by picking Brett Favre. Seriously? He was terrible in 2008, is a year older, may not even play, and the owner already had Cutler and Hasselbeck. I'll never understand that pick. He somewhat redeemed himself with Michael Bush, who could have a Pierre Thomasesque year. He's talented. Without the injury he may have been a first round pick out of Louisville a few years ago and the leg was not a problem for him last year.
Team Gram
Very solid team. I've already proclaimed my love for MJD this year and following with Moss and Wayne are tremendous. My thoughts on Aaron Rodgers are the same as Donovan McNabb. It seems a waste of a pick here. I'm going out on a limb and giving the Obama pick to Moreno. I think he has the talent to be a stud, but McDaniels used a lot of backs in NE and they brought in Buckhalter and Lamont Jordan and still have Torain and Hillis. He'll be good, but might not post the numbers some expect. I can't be too upset about a RB with upside in the 5th round though. John Carlson is a great example of how deep the TE pool is again this year. He was solid last year and now they have some healthy WR and hopefully Matt Hasselbeck is ready too. I love Derrick Mason, but feel like I can find his stats on the FA wire at anytime. Picking the Bears D in round 12 makes me feel like someone replaced his cheat sheet with one from 2005...
Team Thorn
I don't want to sound like a broken record, but the QB and TE picks are early. The positions are deep and QBs don't win leagues when passing TDs are 4 points. The Obama pick goes to Antonio Bryant. He had one big year and now has a new coach, new system, new QB, and a new contract. Yuck. I like LenDale White, but have read they are tiring of his attitude in Tennessee and they drafted Javon Ringer (injury issues, but a beast). I also think the D in Tennessee is going to be weaker which will cause them to throw more. This will not help White's value in anyway. He got a solid guy in Le'Ron McClain in the 10th round. He played well last year earning some type of role in the offense, hopefully not at fullback (fantasy irrelevent)... He saw that he had a weak WR corps and picked two young guys and the ageless, yet fantasy useful Isaac Bruce late. Keep an eye on Lance Moore's recovery after blowing out his shoulder a few months ago...
Team FantasySportsMD
Speaking of fantasy injuries. LaDanian Tomlinson @ pick 5! I know he was injured, it's becoming more and more Rivers' team, and Sproles is going to be involved, but he was considered a bust while having 1500+ yards and 12 TDs (both better than Chris Johnson). He's clearly not the same player as he was three years ago, but I could see the same stats as last year and while it's not #1 overall pick material, getting those numbers in the top 5 works every time. This team clearly has the best 3 WR in the fantasy league. Chris Wells is the Obama pick. He's got huge talent, but here's the problem...he got hurt in college and they hit a little harder in the NFL. And the biggest problem, I think they like to throw the ball in the desert right? Hightower isn't a feature back, but he could remain a factor at the goal line. Larry Johnson could easily be this pick too. However, I love the late picks by this team. Ted Ginn is eligible for break out player of the year, McCoy will be a factor no matter what and could be huge if Westbrook isn't ready. I really like Fred Jackson as a player and I think the Bills do too, and Shiancoe is a great pick this late and supports my wait on the TE theory (he finished last year ranked #5 at the position). In the 13th, why not take Plax right? Props goes to this guy for not taking a kicker in a draft occuring in June, they'll be plenty available come early September. The biggest problem here is that if LT goes down, this team goes down with him...
Team Pera
The league commissioner had everyone covered for the first three picks and absolutely spit the bit. His next decent pick came in round 15. The Gates pick is strange. He's a very good player, but that team has three tall (6' 4''+) emerging WR, plus LT and Sproles. It's definitely the Obama pick and had to be made expecting 2005 results. To justify it, he'd have to get 1100 yards and double digit TDs. I just don't see it. Jericho Cotchery is not a number 1 WR and unless the Jets sign Plaxico, which is unlikely, he'll draw a lot of attention. He has never been one of their red zone targets and he'll be playing with a very inexperienced QB. Getting Cedric Benson where he did is okay, if he gets 400 carries, he'll definitely get 1200 yards, plus there isn't much competition in this backfield. Julius Jones was good for that short stretch in 2004 and I'm not sure what McGahee's role will be since Rice and McClain are better.
Team Love
The Obama pick is Chris Johnson. I spoke about this at length a few weeks ago, I love him, got me to a few championships last year and they've talked about getting him the ball more. The problem is that I want to see how he reacts to the first big hit to his legs. He's small and relies on his speed, if he loses it, definitely a problem. Just temper your expectations slightly, don't expect 1400 yards and 15 TDs. Clinton Portis is a warrior and a great player, Hall of Famer in my opinion. But the type of RB that he is leads me to believe there will be a huge dropoff. Will it be this year? I'm not sure, but his big play ability is essentially gone. I love where he got Felix Jones. Jerry has already said he needs the ball more which you have to like. Barber is going to return to his closer role so Felix gets more carries. Only problem is how much Tashard Choice is involved. If Felix gets 10-12 carries/game he'll be very usefull. Earnest Graham is good value in the 10th round. Derrick Ward is good, but he's not young. This is a timeshare with Graham working at the goalline. I'm not sure what the point of taking the Eagles in round 12 was, they lost their leader in Brian Dawkins so who knows what that does to them. Not the lose of the player, but the leader.
Team Family Fantasy
Yes, Tom Brady's wife is really hot, but he doesn't get any fantasy points for that, and unless you expect him to throw for 50+ TDs again, this was too early. I don't and he gets the Obama pick. Dallas Clark in the 5th. It's early, but I LOVE Clark. Please...stay healthy! Looks like Colts plan to split him out more this year which is great news. I contemplated saying that Mendenhall was the steal of the draft, but he's still unproven. Fast Willie Parker is slowing down a bit and Mendenhall will be active at least on the goal line. As for the Titans' D in round 12, please check out the players they lost in free agency. They will be okay, but no reason to take them here.
Team West
I have always questioned the strategy of taking a non-RB in the first round (ask the Tom Brady owners in 2008 how that worked out). If that players goes down or is a bust, your season is shot. This guy did it and got two very good RBs the next two picks so I think it works out in this case. Barber will not put up the yardage totals, but I think he gets back to scoring TDs in bunches this year. Grant will rebound and be a very good RB2. He had a hamstring injury which is death to RBs value, but finished the year much better. He'll get a full camp this year and will produce as long as he is healthy. I'll give this team's Obama pick to Lee Evans. He won me a championship in 2004, but I don't see how adding TO gets him better stats? Greg Olsen could break out with Cutler and I think Tim Hightower stays relevant. Wells will get hurt and Edge and Arrington are gone. He's not a feature back, but will be involved. Tashard Choice showed he's a good player, but good enough to limit Felix and Barber? I don't know, but I'd definitely spend a 13th round pick to find out. Josh Morgan could battle Ginn for breakout player of the year...
Team Gheewala
He took the best player available with his first two picks and I can't fault that. Here's a snipet of the scouting report on Steve Slaton "He's not overly strong or fast", okay no need to go on. I like him, he'll be lead back on this team, but I think Texas looks to lighten his load a bit by working someone else in. They couldn't find anyone to do this last year so there's a chance the same thing happens, but I think they will and that means he's my Obama pick. Somewhat like Chris Johnson, he'll be good, but expecting him to be a stud might be going a little too far. I like the DeSean Jackson and Donnie Avery picks, but were decent last year and could be starters for fantasy teams if they get a little more consistent. Also, taking Shonn Green this late could be huge. They've already said they want him to be a closer, but there are still questions as to whether they trade Thomas Jones. We know Leon Washington can't handle a feature role, so if Jones in traded, expect Green to become fantasy relevant immediately.
Team Hecker
I feel the same way about Peyton Manning that I do about Tom Brady, I'm just not sure he has a hot wife... I thought long and hard about this one, but I'm giving the Obama pick to the Giant's D. I HATE that he took a defense in the 8th round, makes me a little sick actually. I think they'll be okay, but they will feel the lose of Steve Spagnuolo, and in no way be able to put up numbers to justify this pick. I like Johnathon Stewart to be healthy and more involved this year but I would have gone more RB heavy than this guy did. The Falcons have now gone through three offseasons saying they are going to get Norwood more involved, he's a good player, but at this point, believe it when you see it. Brian Robiskie could have a solid season in Cleveland, especially if Braylon Edwards continues to cover his hands with Smuckers before each game.
Team Bledsoe
This team is without question loaded with boom or bust players. Thomas Jones could stay as the Jets feature back or he could be traded. If he is traded, there isn't a team out there that's going to hand him their feature role is there? Seattle? Cincinatti? I guess it's possible, but unlikely. Terrell Owens' age doesn't bother me, but the fact that he's going from the Romo to Edwards does and the weather is not going to be as nice in Buffallo as it was in Dallas. Kevin Smith finished strong, but does it bother anyone else that the Lions staff wanted to play Rudi Johnson over him at one point last year? Okay, it's a new staff and the resume of the old staff is well.... I don't know the reasoning, and it could be nothing, but I'm holding off giving him unquestioned #2 RB status. Steelers D in round 6... Do you know how good they have to be to justify this? MUCH better than last year. Not going to happen. Torry Holt should be revived somewhat after last year's debacle. I think he'll be a solid #3 in this league, but he didn't do well without Isaac Bruce next to him (there is no #2 standing out in Jax right now) and he's leaving the turf in St. Louis. You know my thoughts on Addai right? Donald Brown is the next big thing in Indy. Unfortunately, my personal feeling is if anyone takes two kickers in a draft, they should be immediately fined by the commissioner.
This league should be fun. Lots of competitive teams and what appears to be "proactive" owners. I'll rank the teams from 1-12 soon and post that. Also, for the record, I researched Peyton Manning's wife, her name is Ashley, and she's pretty hot...
